Saint John—St. Croix
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint John—St. Croix | 45.3% | 43.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.2%−9.9 | 31.9%+12.0 | 3.5%+1.0 | 2.2%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.7 | 30.4%+13.5 | 11.8%−7.3 | 2.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
John Williamson · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 11.5 points, with 74.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Williamson Elected | Conservative | 26,591 | 52.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Karen Ludwig | Liberal | 20,784 | 41.2 | Consultant |
| Andrew Hill | NDP | 1,643 | 3.3 | Retired Veteran |
| Gerald Irish | Green | 794 | 1.6 | Production Sales Manager |
| Keith Tays | Other | 280 | 0.6 | Construction Worker |
| Other candidates | 356 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saint John—Kennebecasis Liberal, safe seat
- Fredericton—Oromocto Liberal, safe seat
- Tobique—Mactaquac Conservative, safe seat
- Fundy Royal Conservative, toss-up
- Acadie—Annapolis Liberal, safe seat
- Miramichi—Grand Lake Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated