Fundy Royal
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundy Royal | 43.8% | 41.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 31.9%+11.9 | 55.2%−13.8 | 3.5%−0.6 | 2.2%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+13.4 | 47.0%−5.6 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.4%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Rob Moore · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 13.2 points, with 75.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Moore Elected | Conservative | 25,411 | 53.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Bill Kudla | Liberal | 19,103 | 39.9 | Retired |
| Cindy Andrie | NDP | 1,507 | 3.1 | Account Manager |
| Hans Johnsen | Green | 961 | 2.0 | Manager |
| Alastair MacFarlane | PPC | 629 | 1.3 | Machinist |
| Other candidates | 235 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Moncton—Dieppe Liberal, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
- Saint John—Kennebecasis Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Kings—Hants Liberal, safe seat
- Egmont Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated