Saint John—Kennebecasis
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint John—Kennebecasis | 61.9% | 28.3% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.2%+6.7 | 31.9%−3.6 | 3.5%+0.9 | 2.2%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+14.9 | 30.4%−2.1 | 11.8%−7.4 | 2.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Wayne Long · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 20.7 points, with 69.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 33.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Long Elected | Liberal | 26,129 | 57.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Melissa Young | Conservative | 16,787 | 37.1 | Executive Officer |
| Armand Cormier | NDP | 1,206 | 2.7 | Software Developer |
| David MacFarquhar | Green | 737 | 1.6 | Data Scientist |
| Austin Venedam | Other | 108 | 0.2 | Labourer |
| Other candidates | 255 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saint John—St. Croix Liberal, toss-up
- Fundy Royal Conservative, toss-up
- Fredericton—Oromocto Liberal, safe seat
- Moncton—Dieppe Liberal, safe seat
- Acadie—Annapolis Liberal, safe seat
- Kings—Hants Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated