Fredericton—Oromocto
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 41.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericton—Oromocto | 65.1% | 23.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.2%+9.9 | 31.9%−8.6 | 3.5%+0.7 | 2.2%+1.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+18.1 | 30.4%−7.1 | 11.8%−7.6 | 2.4%+1.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
David Myles · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 28.9 points, with 75.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 41.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Myles Elected | Liberal | 30,750 | 61.0 | Musician |
| Brian Macdonald | Conservative | 16,200 | 32.1 | Consultant |
| Pam Allen-Leblanc | Green | 1,568 | 3.1 | Self-Employed |
| Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane | NDP | 908 | 1.8 | Library Assistant |
| Dominic Cardy | Other | 345 | 0.7 | Politician |
| Heather Michaud | PPC | 208 | 0.4 | Registered Massage Therapist |
| June Patterson | Other | 146 | 0.3 | Grocery Clerk |
| Brandon Ellis | Other | 44 | 0.1 | Business Development |
| Other candidates | 241 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saint John—St. Croix Liberal, toss-up
- Tobique—Mactaquac Conservative, safe seat
- Saint John—Kennebecasis Liberal, safe seat
- Miramichi—Grand Lake Liberal, safe seat
- Fundy Royal Conservative, toss-up
- Moncton—Dieppe Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated