Miramichi—Grand Lake
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miramichi—Grand Lake | 48.3% | 38.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.2%−6.9 | 31.9%+6.5 | 3.5%−0.7 | 2.2%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+1.3 | 30.4%+8.1 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.4%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mike Dawson · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 1.0 points, with 73.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Dawson Elected | Conservative | 18,421 | 47.8 | Businessman |
| Lisa Harris | Liberal | 18,037 | 46.8 | Local Community Engagement Strategist |
| Josh Floyd | NDP | 968 | 2.5 | Administrative Assistant |
| Matthew Ian Clark | Green | 831 | 2.2 | Administrative Assistant |
| Other candidates | 305 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Fredericton—Oromocto Liberal, safe seat
- Moncton—Dieppe Liberal, safe seat
- Acadie—Bathurst Liberal, safe seat
- Tobique—Mactaquac Conservative, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
- Fundy Royal Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated