Acadie—Bathurst
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 51.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acadie—Bathurst | 68.1% | 16.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.2%+13.0 | 31.9%−15.5 | 3.5%−0.3 | 1.0%+1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+21.1 | 30.4%−14.0 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Serge Cormier · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 41.0 points, with 70.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 51.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serge Cormier Elected | Liberal | 32,556 | 66.7 | Parliamentarian |
| James Brown | Conservative | 12,541 | 25.7 | Professor |
| Ty Boulay | NDP | 2,108 | 4.3 | Social Media Management |
| Randi Rachelle Raynard | PPC | 1,043 | 2.1 | Sales Manager |
| Other candidates | 591 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Miramichi—Grand Lake Liberal, safe seat
- Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Bloc, competitive
- Egmont Liberal, safe seat
- Madawaska—Restigouche Liberal, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
- Moncton—Dieppe Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated