Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | 45.1% | 38.5% | 14.1% | 4.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+17.8 | 43.6%−5.1 | 24.2%−10.1 | 5.7%−0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 6.3%+38.8 | 47.0%−8.5 | 30.4%−16.3 | 11.8%−7.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Alexis Deschênes · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 7.4 points, with 60.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 6.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Deschênes Elected | Bloc | 26,091 | 45.1 | Lawyer |
| Diane Lebouthillier | Liberal | 21,817 | 37.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Jean-Pierre Pigeon | Conservative | 7,047 | 12.2 | Retired |
| Denise Giroux | NDP | 1,005 | 1.7 | Retired Lawyer |
| Shawn Grenier | Other | 572 | 1.0 | Digital Content Creator |
| Christian Rioux | PPC | 452 | 0.8 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 842 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Acadie—Bathurst Liberal, safe seat
- Madawaska—Restigouche Liberal, safe seat
- Rimouski—La Matapédia Bloc, safe seat
- Miramichi—Grand Lake Liberal, safe seat
- Egmont Liberal, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated