Madawaska—Restigouche
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madawaska—Restigouche | 56.1% | 30.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.2%+0.9 | 31.9%−2.0 | 3.5%−0.6 | 1.0%+1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+9.1 | 30.4%−0.4 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 15.4 points, with 70.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 26.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault Elected | Liberal | 22,720 | 54.7 | Research Consultant |
| Michel Morin | Conservative | 16,320 | 39.3 | Retired |
| Daisy Petersen | NDP | 1,251 | 3.0 | Licensed Practical Nurse |
| Nancy Mercier | PPC | 887 | 2.1 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 396 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rimouski—La Matapédia Bloc, safe seat
- Tobique—Mactaquac Conservative, safe seat
- Miramichi—Grand Lake Liberal, safe seat
- Acadie—Bathurst Liberal, safe seat
- Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata Conservative, safe seat
- Fredericton—Oromocto Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated