Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata | 47.0% | 31.1% | 20.4% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+22.8 | 43.6%−12.5 | 27.3%−6.9 | 5.7%−2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+16.6 | 47.0%−15.9 | 6.3%+14.1 | 11.8%−8.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Bernard Généreux · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 15.3 points, with 66.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 15.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Généreux Elected | Conservative | 28,873 | 45.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Rémi Massé | Liberal | 19,097 | 30.3 | Executive Director |
| Diane Sénécal | Bloc | 12,598 | 20.0 | Director |
| Iseult L'Heureux Hubert | NDP | 1,072 | 1.7 | Public Servant |
| Alexie Plourde | Green | 682 | 1.1 | System Administrator |
| Jean-François Morin | PPC | 464 | 0.7 | Director of Communications and Fundraising |
| Thibaud Mony | Other | 206 | 0.3 | Permaculturist |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Montmorency—Charlevoix Conservative, toss-up
- Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Conservative, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Québec Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Conservative, safe seat
- Louis-Hébert Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated