Montmorency—Charlevoix

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Conservative	Bloc	Liberal	NDP
Montmorency—Charlevoix	35.2%	33.6%	29.2%	3.6%
Provincial averageQuebec	24.2%+11.0	27.3%+6.3	43.6%−14.4	5.7%−2.1
National averageCanada	30.4%+4.8	6.3%+27.3	47.0%−17.8	11.8%−8.2

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 98.8% English 0.6% Other languages 0.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Gabriel Hardy · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 0.9 points, with 72.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 2.4 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Gabriel Hardy Elected	Conservative	20,494	34.1	Kinesiologist
Caroline Desbiens	Bloc	19,970	33.2	Parliamentarian
Alex Ouellet-Bélanger	Liberal	17,101	28.4	Engineer
Gérard Briand	NDP	905	1.5	Philanthropy and Fundraising Advisor
Élie Prud'Homme-Tessier	Green	580	1.0	Natural Resources Centre Management
Bart Cortenbach	PPC	357	0.6	Computer Scientist
Other candidates		728	1.2

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.