Rimouski—La Matapédia

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Bloc	Liberal	Conservative	NDP
Rimouski—La Matapédia	46.0%	35.8%	14.5%	4.9%
Provincial averageQuebec	27.3%+18.7	43.6%−7.7	24.2%−9.7	5.7%−0.8
National averageCanada	6.3%+39.7	47.0%−11.2	30.4%−15.9	11.8%−6.9

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 99.2% English 0.5% Other languages 0.3%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Maxime Blanchette-Joncas · Bloc

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Bloc Québécois won by 10.5 points, with 65.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 10.2 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Elected	Bloc	24,947	45.5	Parliamentarian
Alexander Reford	Liberal	19,201	35.1	Director
Nancy Joannette	Conservative	7,324	13.4	Entrepreneur
Salomé Salvain	NDP	974	1.8	Speech Therapist
Noémi Bureau-Civil	Independent	620	1.1	Coordinator
Taraneh Javanbakht	PPC	338	0.6	Researcher
Lysane Picker-Paquin	Other	295	0.5	Artist
Raphaël Arsenault	Independent	242	0.4	Library Clerk
Tommy Lefebvre	Independent	99	0.2	Built Heritage Advisor
Other candidates		728	1.3

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.