Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | 49.5% | 33.4% | 15.3% | 3.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+5.9 | 27.3%+6.1 | 24.2%−8.9 | 5.7%−1.9 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+2.5 | 6.3%+27.1 | 30.4%−15.1 | 11.8%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Richard Martel · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 2.9 points, with 68.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 16.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Martel Elected | Conservative | 17,356 | 33.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Marc St-Hilaire | Bloc | 15,857 | 30.8 | General Manager |
| Stéphane Proulx | Liberal | 15,820 | 30.7 | Manager |
| Raphaël Émond | NDP | 991 | 1.9 | Student |
| Yves Laporte | Green | 476 | 0.9 | Musician |
| François Sabourin | PPC | 339 | 0.7 | Maintenance Man |
| Other candidates | 724 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Montmorency—Charlevoix Conservative, toss-up
- Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata Conservative, safe seat
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Conservative, safe seat
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Conservative, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated