Tobique—Mactaquac
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobique—Mactaquac | 49.2% | 37.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 31.9%+17.3 | 55.2%−18.0 | 3.5%−0.8 | 2.2%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+18.8 | 47.0%−9.8 | 11.8%−9.2 | 2.4%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Richard Bragdon · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 22.8 points, with 73.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 12.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Bragdon Elected | Conservative | 23,322 | 58.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Julian Moulton | Liberal | 14,226 | 35.7 | Band Councillor |
| Michael John Winter | NDP | 812 | 2.0 | Student |
| Liam MacDougall | Green | 806 | 2.0 | Student |
| Vern Brundle | PPC | 501 | 1.3 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 200 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Fredericton—Oromocto Liberal, safe seat
- Miramichi—Grand Lake Liberal, safe seat
- Madawaska—Restigouche Liberal, safe seat
- Saint John—St. Croix Liberal, toss-up
- Saint John—Kennebecasis Liberal, safe seat
- Acadie—Bathurst Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated