Moncton—Dieppe
Federal riding · New Brunswick · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 44.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moncton—Dieppe | 66.7% | 22.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.2%+11.5 | 31.9%−9.8 | 3.5%+1.1 | 2.2%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+19.7 | 30.4%−8.2 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.4%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Ginette Petitpas Taylor · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 31.6 points, with 70.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 44.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginette Petitpas Taylor Elected | Liberal | 30,215 | 62.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Jocelyn Dionne | Conservative | 14,974 | 31.0 | Consultant (Self-Employed) |
| Serge Landry | NDP | 1,775 | 3.7 | Regional Representative for NB & PEI |
| Marshall Dunn | Green | 994 | 2.1 | Student |
| Other candidates | 355 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
- Fundy Royal Conservative, toss-up
- Egmont Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Miramichi—Grand Lake Liberal, safe seat
- Malpeque Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated