Malpeque
Federal riding · Prince Edward Island · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malpeque | 58.6% | 27.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averagePrince Edward Island | 59.4%−0.8 | 27.1%−0.1 | 2.7%+1.7 | 3.2%−0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+11.6 | 30.4%−3.4 | 2.4%+2.0 | 11.8%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Heath MacDonald · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 20.8 points, with 81.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 31.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath MacDonald Elected | Liberal | 15,485 | 57.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Jamie Fox | Conservative | 9,846 | 36.3 | Politician |
| Anna Keenan | Green | 1,049 | 3.9 | Municipal Public Servant |
| Cassie Mackay | NDP | 371 | 1.4 | Unemployed |
| Hilda Baughan | PPC | 132 | 0.5 | Semi-Retired |
| Other candidates | 217 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Charlottetown Liberal, safe seat
- Cardigan Liberal, safe seat
- Egmont Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
- Moncton—Dieppe Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated