Cardigan
Federal riding · Prince Edward Island · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardigan | 58.0% | 27.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averagePrince Edward Island | 59.4%−1.5 | 27.1%+0.6 | 3.2%−0.6 | 2.7%−0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+11.0 | 30.4%−2.6 | 11.8%−9.2 | 2.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kent MacDonald · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 19.5 points, with 79.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 30.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent MacDonald Elected | Liberal | 14,404 | 56.5 | Dairy Farmer |
| James Aylward | Conservative | 9,442 | 37.0 | Retired |
| Lynne Thiele | NDP | 505 | 2.0 | Retired Teacher |
| Wayne Phelan | Independent | 404 | 1.6 | Self-Employed Installer |
| Maria Rodriguez | Green | 326 | 1.3 | Retired Civil Servant |
| Adam Harding | PPC | 180 | 0.7 | Public Works Employee, Town of Three Rivers |
| Other candidates | 233 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Charlottetown Liberal, safe seat
- Malpeque Liberal, safe seat
- Central Nova Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Egmont Liberal, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated