Central Nova
Federal riding · Nova Scotia · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Nova | 53.1% | 33.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageNova Scotia | 59.0%−6.0 | 26.6%+6.6 | 4.4%−1.5 | 1.5% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.1 | 30.4%+2.8 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.4%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Sean Fraser · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 9.1 points, with 74.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Fraser Elected | Liberal | 26,078 | 51.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Brycen Jenkins | Conservative | 21,465 | 42.5 | Welding Inspector |
| Jesiah MacDonald | NDP | 1,649 | 3.3 | Labourer |
| Gerald Romsa | Green | 455 | 0.9 | Retired |
| Charlie MacEachern | PPC | 331 | 0.7 | Sales Manager |
| Alexander MacKenzie | Independent | 235 | 0.5 | Cement Finishing Contractor |
| Other candidates | 345 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardigan Liberal, safe seat
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Liberal, safe seat
- Charlottetown Liberal, safe seat
- Sackville—Bedford—Preston Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Malpeque Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated