Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
Federal riding · Nova Scotia · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 57.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | 71.5% | 13.8% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageNova Scotia | 59.0%+12.4 | 26.6%−12.8 | 4.4%+1.0 | 1.5%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+24.5 | 30.4%−16.6 | 11.8%−6.4 | 2.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Darren Fisher · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 44.7 points, with 71.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 57.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Fisher Elected | Liberal | 40,367 | 67.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Isabelle Obeid | Conservative | 13,557 | 22.6 | School Supervisor |
| Keith Morrison | NDP | 4,201 | 7.0 | Teacher |
| Michelle Lindsay | PPC | 750 | 1.3 | Health Advisor |
| Rana Zaman | Green | 628 | 1.0 | Homemaker |
| Joseph Shea | Other | 131 | 0.2 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 302 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sackville—Bedford—Preston Liberal, safe seat
- Halifax West Liberal, safe seat
- Kings—Hants Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Central Nova Liberal, safe seat
- South Shore—St. Margarets Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated