South Shore—St. Margarets
Federal riding · Nova Scotia · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shore—St. Margarets | 56.0% | 31.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageNova Scotia | 59.0%−3.1 | 26.6%+5.0 | 1.5%+0.7 | 1.0%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+9.0 | 30.4%+1.2 | 2.4%−0.2 | 2.1%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jessica Fancy · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 13.6 points, with 72.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 24.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Fancy-Landry Elected | Liberal | 27,831 | 54.5 | Teacher |
| Rick Perkins | Conservative | 20,864 | 40.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Mark Embrett | Green | 818 | 1.6 | Health Scientist |
| Patrick Shea Boyd | PPC | 698 | 1.4 | Consultant |
| Hayden Henderson | Independent | 500 | 1.0 | Researcher |
| Other candidates | 374 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Acadie—Annapolis Liberal, safe seat
- Halifax West Liberal, safe seat
- Kings—Hants Liberal, safe seat
- Sackville—Bedford—Preston Liberal, safe seat
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Liberal, safe seat
- Saint John—Kennebecasis Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated