Halifax West
Federal riding · Nova Scotia · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 51.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halifax West | 69.2% | 18.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageNova Scotia | 59.0%+10.2 | 26.6%−8.4 | 4.4%+0.7 | 1.5% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+22.2 | 30.4%−12.2 | 11.8%−6.7 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Lena Metlege Diab · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 38.1 points, with 73.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 51.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lena Metlege Diab Elected | Liberal | 36,200 | 65.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Rob Batherson | Conservative | 15,020 | 27.0 | Small Business Owner |
| Rae Tench | NDP | 3,083 | 5.5 | Certified Financial Planner |
| Ron G. Parker | Green | 497 | 0.9 | IT Consultant |
| Adam LeRue | PPC | 384 | 0.7 | Chef |
| Other candidates | 423 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sackville—Bedford—Preston Liberal, safe seat
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Liberal, safe seat
- Kings—Hants Liberal, safe seat
- South Shore—St. Margarets Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Central Nova Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated