Cumberland—Colchester
Federal riding · Nova Scotia · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland—Colchester | 49.5% | 36.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageNova Scotia | 59.0%−9.6 | 26.6%+9.7 | 4.4%−1.4 | 1.5%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+2.5 | 30.4%+5.9 | 11.8%−8.7 | 2.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Alana Hirtle · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 2.5 points, with 70.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 13.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alana Hirtle Elected | Liberal | 23,929 | 48.0 | Business Analyst |
| Stephen Ellis | Conservative | 22,701 | 45.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Larry Duchesne | NDP | 1,873 | 3.8 | Political Candidate |
| Kelly-Ann Callaghan | Green | 694 | 1.4 | Marketing Specialist |
| Paul Church | PPC | 333 | 0.7 | Business Person |
| Other candidates | 312 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kings—Hants Liberal, safe seat
- Malpeque Liberal, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
- Sackville—Bedford—Preston Liberal, safe seat
- Charlottetown Liberal, safe seat
- Moncton—Dieppe Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated