Charlottetown
Federal riding · Prince Edward Island · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 48.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlottetown | 68.2% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averagePrince Edward Island | 59.4%+8.8 | 27.1%−7.1 | 3.2%+1.6 | 2.7%−0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+21.2 | 30.4%−10.4 | 11.8%−7.1 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Sean Casey · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 35.3 points, with 76.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 48.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Casey Elected | Liberal | 13,656 | 64.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Natalie Jameson | Conservative | 6,139 | 28.8 | Legislator |
| Joe Byrne | NDP | 906 | 4.3 | Community Organizer |
| Daniel Cousins | Green | 257 | 1.2 | Student |
| Robert Lucas | PPC | 131 | 0.6 | Consultant |
| Other candidates | 215 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Malpeque Liberal, safe seat
- Cardigan Liberal, safe seat
- Egmont Liberal, safe seat
- Cumberland—Colchester Liberal, safe seat
- Beauséjour Liberal, safe seat
- Central Nova Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated