Michigan

Governor’s race · Michigan

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.3%

Jocelyn Benson
Republican 45.7%

John James
Other 2.0%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Michigan	52.3%	45.7%	2.0%
National averageUnited States	49.5%+2.8	46.9%−1.2	3.6%−1.5

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

40 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Marist University	15–Oct 18, 2026	1,185	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 45	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	3,949	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications	October 1, 2026	682	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 39 Independent and others 6	See the poll
Z To A Research Rust Belt Rising	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	483	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 40 Independent and others 5	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	24–Sep 28, 2026	1,203	registered voters	Democrat 54 Republican 45	See the poll
Marist University	24–Sep 27, 2026	1,235	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 41	See the poll
Guidant Polling And Strategy Public First Action	20–Sep 27, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Co/Efficient	21–Sep 23, 2026	843	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Sep 22, 2026	605	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Cygnal/Beacon Research Michigan Enjoyer	18–Sep 21, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 38 Independent and others 4	See the poll
Suffolk University	16–Sep 20, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 34 Independent and others 3	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	12–Sep 14, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 42 Independent and others 3	See the poll
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	10–Sep 14, 2026	803	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 41	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 6, 2026	843	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 41	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News \| WDIV-TV	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Epic-Mra	22–Aug 28, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 41	See the poll
Michigan State University Institute For Public Policy And Social Research/Yougov	10–Aug 20, 2026	779	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 43	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	9–Aug 11, 2026	877	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 44	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,006	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 47	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,215	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 34	See the poll
Epic-Mra MIRS News Service	24–Jul 31, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 38	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications	28–Jul 29, 2026	672	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 44	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Business Leaders for Michigan \| Michigan Education Association	22–Jul 24, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 39	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service	11–Jun 13, 2026	827	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 40	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	20–May 23, 2026	1,163	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 35	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service	1–May 7, 2026	606	likely voters	Democrat 42 Republican 30 Independent and others 13	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber	Apr 28, 2026 – May 1, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 34 Republican 29 Independent and others 23	See the poll
Impact Research	23–Mar 29, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 40 Republican 36 Independent and others 20	See the poll
Michigan State University Institute For Public Policy And Social Research/Yougov	2–Mar 24, 2026	1,000	adults	Democrat 30 Republican 23 Independent and others 19	See the poll
Impact Research	9–Feb 16, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 39 Republican 36 Independent and others 20	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber	Jan 27, 2026 – Feb 2, 2026	—	likely voters	Independent and others 30 Republican 29 Democrat 28	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News \| WDIV-TV	2–Jan 6, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 34 Democrat 32 Independent and others 26	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service	18–Nov 21, 2025	616	likely voters	Republican 37 Democrat 31 Independent and others 18	See the poll
Epic-Mra ABC 12	6–Nov 11, 2025	600	likely voters	Republican 34 Democrat 33 Independent and others 20	See the poll
Rosetta Stone	23–Oct 25, 2025	637	likely voters	Republican 39 Democrat 34 Independent and others 18	See the poll
Schoen Cooperman Research	9–Oct 14, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 30 Republican 29 Independent and others 26	See the poll
The Tyson Group Plymouth Union Public Advocacy	8–Oct 9, 2025	600	likely voters	Republican 35 Democrat 31 Independent and others 12	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber	5–May 8, 2025	600	registered voters	Democrat 35 Republican 34 Independent and others 22	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service	March 13, 2025	688	likely voters	Democrat 37 Republican 34 Independent and others 16	See the poll
Target Insyght MIRS News Service	3–Mar 6, 2025	600	registered voters	Republican 51 Democrat 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Gretchen Whitmer · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Jocelyn Benson
source
Other Open seat

Anthony Hudson
source
Other Open seat

Donna Brandenburg
source
Other Open seat

Douglas Campbell
source
Republican Open seat

John James
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 10.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.3 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026