New York

Governor’s race · New York

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 56.3%

Kathy Hochul, incumbent
Republican 43.3%

Bruce Blakeman

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
New York	56.3%	43.3%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	49.5%+6.8	46.9%−3.6	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

41 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Quinnipiac University	15–Oct 19, 2026	1,167	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 41	See the poll
Onmessage Inc.	12–Oct 14, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 46	See the poll
Beacon Research Secure AI Project	1–Oct 6, 2026	820	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 31	See the poll
Emerson College PIX 11	3–Oct 5, 2026	900	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 40	See the poll
Marist University	1–Oct 4, 2026	1,361	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 42	See the poll
Co/Efficient Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers	23–Sep 25, 2026	1,046	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Quinnipiac University	17–Sep 20, 2026	1,026	likely voters	Democrat 58 Republican 39	See the poll
Siena University	11–Sep 17, 2026	1,144	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 41	See the poll
Mclaughlin & Associates	27–Aug 31, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 46	See the poll
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now Advocacy	19–Aug 21, 2026	505	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 34	See the poll
Siena University	3–Aug 6, 2026	811	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 39	See the poll
Moxie Strategies Firefighters Association of the State of New York	22–Jul 28, 2026	813	adults	Democrat 49 Republican 37	See the poll
Red Oak Strategic Strong and Safe New York	7–Jul 12, 2026	2,000	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Co/Efficient Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers	Jun 30, 2026 – Jul 2, 2026	1,085	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 41	See the poll
Siena University	17–Jun 23, 2026	1,120	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 32	See the poll
Siena University	27–Apr 30, 2026	806	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 33	See the poll
Echelon Insights Tusk Strategies	24–Mar 26, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 40	See the poll
Siena University	23–Mar 26, 2026	804	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 34	See the poll
Mclaughlin & Associates	4–Mar 8, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 43	See the poll
Siena University	23–Feb 26, 2026	805	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 31	See the poll
Marist University	16–Feb 19, 2026	1,442	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 33 Independent and others 2	See the poll
Mad Global Strategy Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future	2–Feb 4, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 34	See the poll
Siena University	26–Jan 28, 2026	802	registered voters	Democrat 54 Republican 28	See the poll
John Zogby Strategies	6–Jan 8, 2026	844	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 34 Independent and others 8	See the poll
Siena University	8–Dec 12, 2025	801	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 25	See the poll
Siena University	10–Nov 12, 2025	802	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 32	See the poll
J.L. Partners	9–Nov 10, 2025	500	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 36	See the poll
Manhattan Institute	22–Oct 26, 2025	900	registered voters	Republican 43 Democrat 42	See the poll
Grayhouse	20–Sep 26, 2025	1,250	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Siena University	8–Sep 10, 2025	802	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 27	See the poll
Siena University	4–Aug 7, 2025	813	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 31	See the poll
Siena University	23–Jun 26, 2025	800	registered voters	Democrat 44 Republican 19	See the poll
Siena University	12–May 15, 2025	805	registered voters	Independent and others 55 Democrat 36	See the poll
Harper Polling	7–May 9, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 39	See the poll
Co/Efficient	1–May 2, 2025	1,163	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 42	See the poll
Grayhouse	22–Apr 24, 2025	600	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 38	See the poll
Siena University	14–Apr 16, 2025	802	registered voters	Democrat 39	See the poll
Siena University	2–Mar 6, 2025	806	registered voters	Independent and others 56 Democrat 34	See the poll
Citizen Data Unite NY	Jan 30, 2025 – Feb 10, 2025	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 38	See the poll
Siena University	27–Jan 30, 2025	803	registered voters	Democrat 31	See the poll
Siena University	2–Dec 5, 2024	834	registered voters	Democrat 33	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Kathy Hochul · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Kathy Hochul
source
Republican Challenger

Bruce Blakeman
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 6.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 13.0 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026