Vermont

Governor’s race · Vermont

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 57.5%

Phil Scott, incumbent
Democrat 41.1%

Amanda Janoo
Other 1.4%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Vermont	57.5%	41.1%	1.4%
National averageUnited States	46.9%+10.6	49.5%−8.4	3.6%−2.1

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
State Navigate	2–Oct 4, 2026	948	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 43	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	829	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Braun Research Vermont Public Radio	10–Sep 21, 2026	732	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 34	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	15–Jul 20, 2026	925	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 33	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	867	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 27	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Phil Scott · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Phil Scott
source
Democrat Challenger

Amanda Janoo
source
Other Challenger

Brian Judd
source
Other Challenger

Dean Roy
source
Other Challenger

June Goodband
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 51.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 16.7 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026