Maryland

Governor’s race · Maryland

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 64.5%

Wes Moore, incumbent
Republican 29.9%

Dan Cox
Other 5.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Maryland	64.5%	29.9%	5.6%
National averageUnited States	49.5%+15.0	46.9%−17.0	3.6%+2.1

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Umbc Institute Of Politics	22–Sep 27, 2026	776	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 24 Independent and others 6	See the poll
Zenith Research Blended Public Affairs \| Perry Jacobson	Jul 27, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 58 Republican 31	See the poll
Gonzales Research	Dec 21, 2025 – Jan 6, 2026	808	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 28	See the poll
University Of Maryland Baltimore County	21–Oct 25, 2025	757	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 29 Independent and others 12	See the poll
Opinionworks Baltimore Banner \| Robert W. Deutsch Foundation	7–Oct 10, 2025	928	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 37	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Wes Moore · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Wes Moore
source
Other Challenger

Andy Ellis
source
Other Challenger

Cathy White
source
Republican Challenger

Dan Cox
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 32.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 34.6 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026