Côte-du-Sud
Provincial riding · Quebec · Quebec City
October 5, 2026 result
Frédéric Poulin (Conservative Party of Quebec) wins with 42.3% of the vote, 18.4 points ahead of Valérie Hamel (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frédéric Poulin | PCQ | 15,161 | 42.3% |
| Valérie Hamel | PQ | 8,560 | 23.9% |
| Mathieu Rivest | CAQ | 6,076 | 17.0% |
| Nancy St-Pierre | QLP | 3,967 | 11.1% |
| Jordan Veillette | QS | 2,040 | 5.7% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Conservatives favoured at 68% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Frédéric Poulin (PCQ) winning at 69%: it got it right. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 33.4% | 42.3% | +9.0 |
| PQ | 26.1% | 23.9% | −2.2 |
| CAQ | 17.9% | 17.0% | −0.9 |
| QLP | 15.4% | 11.1% | −4.3 |
| QS | 6.8% | 5.7% | −1.1 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 34% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 23.4% Rank 60 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 34% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +20% 2022: 19.5% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 20 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (68.5%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PCQ | PQ | CAQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Côte-du-Sud | 33.4% | 26.1% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.2%+13.2 | 28.7%−2.6 | 13.9%+4.0 | 24.8%−9.4 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 24.3 points, with 68.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Conservatives ahead by 10.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Rivest Elected | CAQ | 16,116 | 47.7 |
| Frédéric Poulin | PCQ | 7,910 | 23.4 |
| Michel Forget | PQ | 4,316 | 12.8 |
| Guillaume Dufour | QS | 3,154 | 9.3 |
| Sylvain Lemieux | QLP | 2,132 | 6.3 |
| Sylvain Cloutier | Other | 164 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques CAQ, toss-up
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré PQ, toss-up
- Rimouski PQ, safe seat
- Chicoutimi PQ, safe seat
- Bellechasse PCQ, safe seat
- Jonquière PQ, safe seat
- Forecast updated