Saint-François
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Sylvie Tanguay (Parti Québécois) wins with 26.0% of the vote, 2.2 points ahead of Jacqueline Belleau (QLP).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sylvie Tanguay | PQ | 9,709 | 26.0% |
| Jacqueline Belleau | QLP | 8,900 | 23.9% |
| Esteban Méndez-Hord | PCQ | 6,611 | 17.7% |
| Geneviève Hébert | CAQ | 6,217 | 16.7% |
| Mia Fréchette | QS | 5,416 | 14.5% |
| Rémi Tétreault | Other | 271 | 0.7% |
| Sylvie Peloquin | Other | 176 | 0.5% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 79% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Sylvie Tanguay (PQ) winning at 57%: it got it right. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 28.6% | 26.0% | −2.6 |
| QLP | 19.1% | 23.9% | +4.8 |
| PCQ | 19.4% | 17.7% | −1.7 |
| CAQ | 13.7% | 16.7% | +3.0 |
| QS | 18.0% | 14.5% | −3.5 |
| Other | 1.2% | 1.2% | −0.0 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 39% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 27.0% Rank 28 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 39% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +7% 2022: 25.3% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here less than across Quebec (increase ranked 81 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a weaker-than-expected rise mostly signalled lower overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (69.5%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | PCQ | QLP | QS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-François | 28.7% | 19.4% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%−0.1 | 20.2%−0.8 | 24.8%−5.7 | 10.9%+7.1 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 14.2 points, with 69.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 6.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geneviève Hébert Elected | CAQ | 17,280 | 42.4 |
| Mélissa Généreux | QS | 11,491 | 28.2 |
| Dany Bernier | PCQ | 4,483 | 11.0 |
| Sylvie Tanguay | PQ | 3,712 | 9.1 |
| Claude Charron | QLP | 3,220 | 7.9 |
| Colleen McInerney | Other | 285 | 0.7 |
| Olivier Dion | Other | 257 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sherbrooke PQ, toss-up
- Orford QLP, competitive
- Richmond PQ, competitive
- Mégantic PCQ, toss-up
- Drummond–Bois-Francs PQ, toss-up
- Arthabaska-L’Érable PCQ, competitive
- Forecast updated