Orford
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Charles Milliard (Quebec Liberal Party) wins with 37.8% of the vote, 12.8 points ahead of Jocelyn Caron (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Milliard | QLP | 13,080 | 37.8% |
| Jocelyn Caron | PQ | 8,664 | 25.0% |
| Benoit Robitaille | PCQ | 4,785 | 13.8% |
| Allison Turner | CAQ | 4,113 | 11.9% |
| Eve-Lyne Clusiault | QS | 3,349 | 9.7% |
| David Cherniak | Other | 168 | 0.5% |
| Lucie Pinard | Other | 158 | 0.5% |
| Ngaire DeNora | Other | 147 | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Smith | Other | 138 | 0.4% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Liberals favoured at 75% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLP | 33.8% | 37.8% | +4.0 |
| PQ | 27.1% | 25.0% | −2.0 |
| PCQ | 17.1% | 13.8% | −3.3 |
| CAQ | 13.1% | 11.9% | −1.2 |
| QS | 7.8% | 9.7% | +1.9 |
| Other | 1.1% | 1.8% | +0.7 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 40% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 28.5% Rank 18 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 40% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +21% 2022: 23.6% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 19 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (71.2%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| QLP | PQ | PCQ | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orford | 33.8% | 27.1% | 17.1% | 13.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8%+9.1 | 28.7%−1.6 | 20.2%−3.1 | 13.9%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 26.8 points, with 71.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Liberals ahead by 9.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gilles Bélanger Elected | CAQ | 14,084 | 43.0 |
| Kenza Sassi | QS | 5,298 | 16.2 |
| Vicki-May Hamm | QLP | 4,917 | 15.0 |
| Monique Allard | PQ | 4,463 | 13.6 |
| Martin Lamontagne Lacasse | PCQ | 3,567 | 10.9 |
| Mark Gandey | Other | 354 | 1.1 |
| Joel Lacroix | Other | 109 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sherbrooke PQ, toss-up
- Richmond PQ, competitive
- Saint-François PQ, toss-up
- Daniel-Johnson PCQ, toss-up
- Drummond–Bois-Francs PQ, toss-up
- Granby CAQ, toss-up
- Forecast updated