Gordon and Buchan
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon and Buchan | 29.7% | 27.5% | 20.5% | 14.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+26.8 | 20.4%+7.1 | 23.1%−2.5 | 10.3%+4.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 78.6% |
|---|
Current member
Harriet Cross · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.0 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Cross Elected | Conservative | 14,418 | 32.9 |
| Richard Thomson | SNP | 13,540 | 30.9 |
| Conrad Wood | Lib Dems | 7,307 | 16.7 |
| Nurul Ali | Labour | 4,686 | 10.7 |
| Kris Callander | Reform UK | 3,897 | 8.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP, toss-up
- Aberdeen South Conservative, safe seat
- Aberdeen North SNP, safe seat
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative, toss-up
- Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP, safe seat
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated