West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 67%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 31.4% | 27.1% | 18.4% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.0 | 2.9%+24.2 | 23.1%−4.7 | 10.3%+0.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 75.8% |
|---|
Current member
Andrew Bowie · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bowie Elected | Conservative | 17,428 | 35.6 |
| Glen Reynolds | SNP | 13,987 | 28.6 |
| Kate Blake | Labour | 6,397 | 13.1 |
| Michael Turvey | Lib Dems | 6,342 | 13.0 |
| Brandon Innes | Reform UK | 3,497 | 7.1 |
| William Linegar | Green | 1,032 | 2.1 |
| Iris Leask | Other | 219 | 0.5 |
| David Neill | Other | 56 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP, safe seat
- Aberdeen South Conservative, safe seat
- Aberdeen North SNP, safe seat
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP, safe seat
- Gordon and Buchan SNP, toss-up
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated