Aberdeen North
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen North | 32.4% | 19.8% | 16.8% | 13.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+29.4 | 23.1%−3.3 | 24.3%−7.5 | 20.4%−7.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 75.2% |
|---|
Current member
Kirsty Blackman · SNP
Previous election (2024)
The SNP won by 4.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 12.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirsty Blackman Elected | SNP | 14,533 | 34.5 |
| Lynn Thomson | Labour | 12,773 | 30.3 |
| Gillian Tebberen | Conservative | 5,881 | 14.0 |
| Kenneth Leggat | Reform UK | 3,781 | 9.0 |
| Desmond Bouse | Lib Dems | 2,583 | 6.1 |
| Esme Houston | Green | 1,275 | 3.0 |
| Charlie Abel | Other | 703 | 1.7 |
| Dawn Smith | Other | 352 | 0.8 |
| Lucas Grant | Other | 214 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aberdeen South Conservative, safe seat
- Gordon and Buchan SNP, toss-up
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP, toss-up
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative, toss-up
- Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP, safe seat
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated