Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | 29.5% | 27.4% | 26.6% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+26.6 | 20.4%+6.9 | 23.1%+3.5 | 10.3%−4.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 69.8% |
|---|
Current member
Seamus Logan · SNP
Previous election (2024)
The SNP won by 2.5 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seamus Logan Elected | SNP | 13,455 | 35.2 |
| Douglas Ross | Conservative | 12,513 | 32.8 |
| Jo Hart | Reform UK | 5,562 | 14.6 |
| Andy Brown | Labour | 3,876 | 10.1 |
| Ian Bailey | Lib Dems | 2,782 | 7.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gordon and Buchan SNP, toss-up
- Aberdeen South Conservative, safe seat
- Aberdeen North SNP, safe seat
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative, toss-up
- Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP, safe seat
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated