Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | 37.9% | 16.9% | 16.7% | 15.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+34.9 | 23.1%−6.2 | 20.4%−3.7 | 24.3%−8.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 77.0% |
|---|
Previous election (2024)
The SNP won by 2.0 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 20.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Gethins Elected | SNP | 15,581 | 35.3 |
| Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank | Labour | 14,722 | 33.4 |
| Richard Brooks | Conservative | 6,841 | 15.5 |
| Gwen Wood | Reform UK | 3,800 | 8.6 |
| David Evans | Lib Dems | 2,249 | 5.1 |
| Ghazi Khan | Other | 693 | 1.6 |
| Moira Brown | Other | 231 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP, safe seat
- Dundee Central SNP, safe seat
- North East Fife Lib Dems, safe seat
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative, toss-up
- Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP, safe seat
- Lothian East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated