North East Fife
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East Fife | 47.1% | 23.5% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+36.8 | 2.9%+20.6 | 23.1%−9.8 | 10.4%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 69.1% |
|---|
Current member
Wendy Chamberlain · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 31.6 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 23.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wendy Chamberlain Elected | Lib Dems | 23,384 | 54.7 |
| Stefan Hoggan-Radu | SNP | 9,905 | 23.2 |
| Jennifer Gallagher | Labour | 4,026 | 9.4 |
| Matthew Wren | Reform UK | 2,094 | 4.9 |
| Bill Bowman | Conservative | 1,666 | 3.9 |
| Morven Ovenstone-Jones | Green | 1,653 | 3.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP, safe seat
- Lothian East Labour, toss-up
- Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP, safe seat
- Dundee Central SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, safe seat
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated