Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 34.9% | 24.7% | 19.0% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.5 | 2.9%+21.7 | 23.1%−4.1 | 10.3%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 75.1% |
|---|
Current member
John Lamont · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 14.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Lamont Elected | Conservative | 18,872 | 40.5 |
| David Wilson | SNP | 12,273 | 26.4 |
| Caitlin Stott | Labour | 6,311 | 13.6 |
| Ray Georgeson | Lib Dems | 3,686 | 7.9 |
| Carolyn Grant | Reform UK | 3,340 | 7.2 |
| Neil MacKinnon | Green | 1,526 | 3.3 |
| Ellie Merton | Other | 329 | 0.7 |
| Hamish Goldie-Scot | Other | 221 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North East Fife Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hexham Conservative, toss-up
- North Northumberland Reform UK, toss-up
- Lothian East Labour, toss-up
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour, safe seat
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated