North Northumberland
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 92%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Northumberland | 27.0% | 24.2% | 23.2% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+4.0 | 24.3%−0.1 | 20.4%+2.8 | 10.3%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,775 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 72.3% |
Current member
David Smith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Smith Elected | Labour | 17,855 | 36.6 |
| Anne-Marie Trevelyan | Conservative | 12,788 | 26.2 |
| Katherine Hales | Reform UK | 7,688 | 15.7 |
| Natalie Younes | Lib Dems | 5,169 | 10.6 |
| Georgina Hill | Other | 3,220 | 6.6 |
| Jan Rosen | Green | 1,743 | 3.6 |
| Michael Joyce | Other | 288 | 0.6 |
| Andrew Martin | Other | 92 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blyth and Ashington Labour, toss-up
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
- Tynemouth Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated