Aberdeen South
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen South | 33.8% | 26.5% | 13.5% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.4 | 2.9%+23.5 | 23.1%−9.5 | 24.3%−13.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 77.7% |
|---|
Previous election (2024)
The SNP won by 8.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 7.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Flynn Elected | SNP | 15,213 | 32.8 |
| Mohammad Malik | Labour | 11,455 | 24.7 |
| John Wheeler | Conservative | 11,300 | 24.4 |
| Michael Pearce | Reform UK | 3,199 | 6.9 |
| Jeff Goodhall | Lib Dems | 2,921 | 6.3 |
| Guy Ingerson | Green | 1,609 | 3.5 |
| Graeme Craib | Other | 423 | 0.9 |
| Sophie Molly | Other | 225 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aberdeen North SNP, safe seat
- Gordon and Buchan SNP, toss-up
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP, toss-up
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative, toss-up
- Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP, safe seat
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated