Central Ayrshire
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Ayrshire | 27.5% | 24.0% | 18.2% | 13.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+24.6 | 23.1%+1.0 | 24.3%−6.0 | 20.4%−6.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 71.8% |
|---|
Current member
Alan Gemmell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.6 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Gemmell Elected | Labour | 18,091 | 43.7 |
| Annie McIndoe | SNP | 11,222 | 27.1 |
| David Rocks | Conservative | 6,147 | 14.8 |
| Kevin Blades | Reform UK | 3,420 | 8.3 |
| Tom Kerr | Green | 1,039 | 2.5 |
| Elaine Ford | Lib Dems | 983 | 2.4 |
| Louise McDaid | Other | 329 | 0.8 |
| Alan MacMillan | Other | 188 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP, toss-up
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP, safe seat
- North Ayrshire and Arran SNP, safe seat
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun SNP, safe seat
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West SNP, safe seat
- East Renfrewshire SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated