North Ayrshire and Arran
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Ayrshire and Arran | 34.1% | 23.4% | 14.9% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+31.1 | 23.1%+0.4 | 24.3%−9.3 | 20.4%−8.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 67.5% |
|---|
Current member
Irene Campbell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.4 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 10.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Campbell Elected | Labour | 16,821 | 39.8 |
| Patricia Gibson | SNP | 13,270 | 31.4 |
| Todd Ferguson | Conservative | 5,954 | 14.1 |
| Mike Mann | Reform UK | 3,415 | 8.1 |
| Cara McKee | Green | 1,327 | 3.1 |
| Gillian Cole-Hamilton | Lib Dems | 1,005 | 2.4 |
| Ian Gibson | Other | 238 | 0.6 |
| James McDaid | Other | 232 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP, toss-up
- Central Ayrshire SNP, toss-up
- Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber SNP, safe seat
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West SNP, safe seat
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP, safe seat
- Dumfries and Galloway SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated