Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber

Westminster constituency · Scotland

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	SNP	Conservative	Reform UK	Lib Dems
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	34.5%	19.2%	16.2%	13.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom	2.9%+31.5	20.4%−1.2	23.1%−6.9	10.3%+3.5

Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.

Employment rate	73.1%

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-2022 population, January 2026 labour market

Brendan O'Hara · SNP

In office since May 7, 2015. 59th Parliament.

The SNP won by 13.9 points.

Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 15.3 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Brendan O'Hara Elected	SNP	15,582	34.7
Amanda Hampsey	Conservative	9,350	20.8
Hamish Maxwell	Labour	8,585	19.1
Alan Reid	Lib Dems	7,359	16.4
Melanie Hurst	Reform UK	3,045	6.8
Tommy MacPherson	Other	941	2.1

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.