North Down
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Down | 47.0% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+42.0 | 10.4%−7.6 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Alex Easton · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Another party won by 17.1 points.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 16.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Easton Elected | Other | 20,913 | 48.3 |
| Stephen Farry | Alliance | 13,608 | 31.4 |
| Tim Collins | UUP | 6,754 | 15.6 |
| Barry McKee | Green | 1,247 | 2.9 |
| Deirdre Vaughan | SDLP | 657 | 1.5 |
| Chris Carter | Other | 117 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Strangford DUP, safe seat
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- South Down Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated