Belfast East
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the DUP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belfast East | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%−0.3 | 10.4%−7.9 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Gavin Robinson · DUP
Previous election (2024)
The DUP won by 6.3 points.
Our current projection: the DUP ahead by 6.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Robinson Elected | DUP | 19,894 | 46.6 |
| Naomi Long | Alliance | 17,218 | 40.3 |
| John Ross | TUV | 1,918 | 4.5 |
| Ryan Warren | UUP | 1,818 | 4.3 |
| Brian Smyth | Green | 1,077 | 2.5 |
| Séamas De Faoite | SDLP | 619 | 1.5 |
| Ryan North | Other | 162 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Strangford DUP, safe seat
- North Down Other, safe seat
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated