Lagan Valley
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Alliance a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagan Valley | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%−0.7 | 10.4%−9.5 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sorcha Eastwood · Alliance
Previous election (2024)
Alliance won by 6.0 points.
Our current projection: Alliance ahead by 5.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sorcha-Lucy Eastwood Elected | Alliance | 18,618 | 37.9 |
| Jonathan Buckley | DUP | 15,659 | 31.9 |
| Robbie Butler | UUP | 11,157 | 22.7 |
| Lorna Smyth | TUV | 2,186 | 4.5 |
| Simon Lee | SDLP | 1,028 | 2.1 |
| Patricia Denvir | Green | 433 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- South Down Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Upper Bann DUP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated