Belfast North
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Sinn Féin a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | SNP | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belfast North | 9.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+4.3 | 10.4%−7.5 | 2.9%−2.7 | 20.4%−20.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
John Finucane · Sinn Féin
Previous election (2024)
Sinn Féin won by 13.9 points.
Our current projection: Sinn Féin ahead by 13.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Finucane Elected | Sinn Féin | 17,674 | 43.7 |
| Phillip Brett | DUP | 12,062 | 29.8 |
| Nuala McAllister | Alliance | 4,274 | 10.6 |
| David Clarke | TUV | 2,877 | 7.1 |
| Carl Whyte | SDLP | 1,413 | 3.5 |
| Mal O'Hara | Green | 1,206 | 3.0 |
| Fiona Ferguson | Other | 946 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
- East Antrim DUP, toss-up
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated