Belfast South and Mid Down
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SDLP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belfast South and Mid Down | 5.0% | 3.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0% | 10.4%−6.8 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Claire Hanna · SDLP
Previous election (2024)
The SDLP won by 28.8 points.
Our current projection: the SDLP ahead by 28.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Hanna Elected | SDLP | 21,345 | 49.1 |
| Kate Nicholl | Alliance | 8,839 | 20.3 |
| Tracy Kelly | DUP | 6,859 | 15.8 |
| Michael Henderson | UUP | 2,653 | 6.1 |
| Dan Boucher | TUV | 2,218 | 5.1 |
| Ãine Groogan | Green | 1,577 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Strangford DUP, safe seat
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
- South Down Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated