South Down
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Sinn Féin a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Down | 5.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+0.9 | 10.4%−9.4 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Chris Hazzard · Sinn Féin
Previous election (2024)
Sinn Féin won by 20.5 points.
Our current projection: Sinn Féin ahead by 20.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hazzard Elected | Sinn Féin | 19,698 | 43.5 |
| Colin McGrath | SDLP | 10,418 | 23.0 |
| Diane Forsythe | DUP | 7,349 | 16.2 |
| Andrew McMurray | Alliance | 3,187 | 7.0 |
| Jim Wells | TUV | 1,893 | 4.2 |
| Michael O'Loan | UUP | 1,411 | 3.1 |
| Rosemary McGlone | Aontú | 797 | 1.8 |
| Declan Walsh | Green | 444 | 1.0 |
| Hannah Westropp | Conservative | 46 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Strangford DUP, safe seat
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated