Belfast West
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Sinn Féin a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belfast West | 20.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+15.2 | 10.4%−9.3 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Paul Maskey · Sinn Féin
Previous election (2024)
Sinn Féin won by 32.4 points.
Our current projection: Sinn Féin ahead by 32.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Maskey Elected | Sinn Féin | 21,009 | 52.9 |
| Gerry Carrol | Other | 5,048 | 12.7 |
| Paul Doherty | SDLP | 4,318 | 10.9 |
| Frank McCoubrey | DUP | 4,304 | 10.8 |
| Ann McClure | TUV | 2,010 | 5.1 |
| Eóin Millar | Alliance | 1,077 | 2.7 |
| Gerard Herdman | Aontú | 904 | 2.3 |
| Ben Sharkey | UUP | 461 | 1.2 |
| Ash Jones | Green | 451 | 1.1 |
| Tony Mallon | Other | 161 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
- East Antrim DUP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated