South Antrim
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the UUP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Antrim | 7.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+2.0 | 10.4%−9.1 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Robin Swann · UUP
Previous election (2024)
The UUP won by 17.5 points.
Our current projection: the UUP ahead by 16.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Swann Elected | UUP | 16,311 | 38.0 |
| Paul Girvan | DUP | 8,799 | 20.5 |
| Declan Kearney | Sinn Féin | 8,034 | 18.7 |
| John Blair | Alliance | 4,574 | 10.7 |
| Mel Lucas | TUV | 2,693 | 6.3 |
| Roisin Lynch | SDLP | 1,589 | 3.7 |
| Lesley Veronica | Green | 541 | 1.3 |
| Siobhan McErlean | Aontú | 367 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- East Antrim DUP, toss-up
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated