East Antrim
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the DUP a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Antrim | 10.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+5.3 | 10.4%−9.0 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sammy Wilson · DUP
Previous election (2024)
The DUP won by 3.3 points.
Our current projection: the DUP ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Wilson Elected | DUP | 11,462 | 28.9 |
| Danny Donnelly | Alliance | 10,156 | 25.6 |
| John Stewart | UUP | 9,476 | 23.9 |
| Matthew Warwick | TUV | 4,135 | 10.4 |
| Oliver McMullan | Sinn Féin | 2,986 | 7.5 |
| Margaret McKillop | SDLP | 892 | 2.3 |
| Mark Bailey | Green | 568 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- North Antrim Other, toss-up
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated